The Aerospace and Defense Industries of the United States are poised to undergo one of the most significant changes since the end of the Cold War; perhaps the most significant since World War II. We believe that observers (embedded vendors included) who expect small changes are mistaken, thereby fostering a false and dangerous sense of security across much of the industry and government.

The impact to our economy goes far beyond our current financial problems and involves fundamental structural changes taking place in the industry and in the market. As in prior shifts of this nature, there will be winners and losers – however these shifts may be profound, creating more dramatic winners and losers than in the last cycle.

The impact of major primes shifting financial challenges to their vendors (and by association to embedded sub-vendors) will reach down into the value chain, in some cases devastating naïve second and third tier vendors.

Steve Roemerman, CEO of Lone Star Aerospace, has written a definitive paper “Restructuring America’s Aerospace and Defense Industry; how will it happen and what will it mean to Lower Tiers and Supporting Embedded Industries”. Steve, a former TI and Raytheon Senior VP, is a recognized strategy advisor to government and industry organizations, and is currently a senior advisor to the Navy, Marines, Air Force and NASA. EMF frequently partners with Lone Star Aerospace who uses the EMF Dashboard to develop embedded technology ROIs

In November, EMF will post Roemerman’s paper on our website.

That the DoD will experience an 18% to 40% reduction in discretionary funding is a certainty. Such luminaries as Ken Krieg, former Deputy Secretary for Defense Acquisition, and Booze & Company have affirmed this to be the case. Roemerman, whose forecasts parallel Krieg and Booze, details the consequences and offers twelve specific suggestions for the lower tier and their suppliers. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the share of the US gross domestic product (GDP) allocated to defense spending declined from 5.6% in the 80’s to 3.8% in the 90’s and 3.1% in the new millennium.

Roemerman points out that FY 2010 may be the 14th consecutive year of spending growth if real growth is achieved – driven principally by operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. The last time defense spending grew for this period of time was in 1837.

Moreover, you can see relationships between the trees. For example, one can not only see what target OSes are developers are using, but one can also look simultaneously at many OSes to determine how many developers are on a project (and what types of developers), how many months it take from design start to shipment, what percentage is canceled and how many months the project runs before cancellation (same for designs completed behind or ahead of schedule). This is what Market Intelligence provides that Market Research does not.

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One would expect, then, that companies vying for a competitive advantage would value and depend upon accurate and comprehensive information that permits them to closely examine their comparative strengths and weaknesses based on detailed information gleaned from what thousands of potential customers use, don’t use; like and dislike; and to ascertain what technologies have produced the best design outcomes as well as time-to-market issues.

Strangely, we speak with many companies, blessed with talented and experienced individuals, which spend millions of dollars in marketing and sales promotion – yet haven’t a clue as to whether their assumptions reflect the realities of the marketplace.

My wife and business partner, Dolores, who with thirty years of teaching is relatively new to the embedded universe (with three and a half years of experience) is constantly amazed that companies routinely waste hundreds of thousands of dollars per year on false starts and missed market opportunities. Conversely, they spend a fraction of their monthly marketing budget on market intelligence which would support company efforts with accurate and relevant information. We are usually told the following:

• We don’t have the budget for such information – the folks that control the budget aren’t particularly interested in these efforts
• We don’t have anyone who has the time to look at competitive markets – we are too busy speaking with our current customers (what about expanding your customer base and protecting your current customers from competitors?)
• We are focusing our efforts on sales lead generation (and what competitive information do you have to get the sale once you have a lead?)
• Our products are so special that they sell themselves – so we don’t need to understand our marketplace

This drives Dolores – who comes from decades of educational research and literacy program development – crazy. She wonders how so many highly intelligent and creative people can miss the obvious connection between information and success.

Perhaps this disconnect comes from our experience as engineers. We are educated, trained and given experience in methodological processes – maybe this is the reason that engineers have some difficulty in apprehending marketing principles that are inexact and abstract. Other factors may cloud the concept.

Companies:

• Aren’t familiar with how market intelligence can be used effectively
• Aren’t familiar with or acquainted with new tools for accessing market needs and directions
• Aren’t oriented towards how market intelligence contributes to a company’s ROI

Embedded Market Intelligence Supports Embedded Developers

EMF recognizes that embedded developers are budget constrained, yet have a need for accurate and statistically valid information that can have a significant impact of their success. That is why we developed this blog in conjunction with our main website. To provide embedded developers, and executives, with timely, accurate information and detailed “best practices” to enable you to make informed decisions to better help you succeed!